Noilly Prattle: Breaking Up is Hard to Do

Monday, June 15, 2015

Breaking Up is Hard to Do

     Are we about to witness the dreaded “Grexit” from the EU?

stencil in Athens by street artist Flip
       The grand experiment in European unity seems to be coming apart at the seams. The Greek drama may only be the tip of the iceberg with Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland possibly waiting in the wings. Clearly, a single currency without political unity and a reasonable economic parity is not working, with the haves clearly frustrated with the have lesses and demanding austerity from the perceived profligacy of the poorer southern cousins.

       The news out of Europe on the negotiations between its financial triumvirate (ECB, IMF, World Bank) creditors and Greece's debt repayment looks less and less promising for preventing a Greek default. Should that occur, as seems increasingly possible, what are Greece's options? Who might benefit, besides Greece itself, from a Grexit from the EU?

       I am guessing that there is a “savior” waiting in the wings, or, since this involves a Greek drama, shall we say a “deus ex machina” dropping down from the clouds to straighten everything out.

       The “new great game” of empire is at the core of much of the unrest and instability we are witnessing in our hapless 21st Century. The central arc of instability is the friction point between the main protagonists in this clash of the titans in the borderland between NATO and the emerging Russia-China entente cordiale and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). The Ukrainian conflict is the current flash point in this imperial struggle. The chaos in the Middle East is a kind of sub-plot in the main theme of this clash of empires.

       So, along comes little Greece, newly kicked out of the European Union. Who can it turn to for financial assistance and security? Who would be delighted to stick it back to the Western alliance for its non-stop demonization of everything Russian, especially it's tough unflappable leader? Who would love to have another warm-water port along with Sevastopol in exchange for a helping financial hand?

Greek Prime Minster Alexis Tsipras
       Greek Prime Minister Tsipras has been openly pro-Moscow, and Russia in May invited Greece to join the BRICS Development Bank. If Greece leaves the Euro and possibly the EU as well, it would not have much choice but to throw in its lot with the growing Eastern alliance, potentially opening a door to further defections by Europe's poor southern cousins.

       I'd say fasten your seat belts, we're in for a bumpy ride. 

1 comment:

Noilly Prattle said...

As the noise level mounts over a possible default on Greece's debt payment to the IMF by June 30, Greek Minister Tsipras is in St. Petersburg to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin undoubtedly to discuss how much help Greece can hope for from Russia (and possibly China as well) should Greece decide to opt out of the Euro and even the EU.